We encourage you to read our review of the past week in Central and Eastern Europe:
Eastern Flank Summit in Helsinki
On December 16, Helsinki will host a summit of prime ministers from NATO’s eastern flank countries – Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said that in the face of increasing pressure from Russia in areas such as cyberspace, hybrid operations, and airspace violations, the assembled countries must continue to strengthen their cooperation on border protection. The talks will also focus on strengthening defense readiness in the region.
Since joining NATO, Finland has shown a consistent initiative in strengthening regional security, regardless of changes in its internal political situation. Helsinki remains active both in its relations with the US (intensification of joint exercises, close relations between the heads of both states) Western European partners (including in the arms industry), and NATO’s eastern flank countries (cooperation on strengthening border protection with Russia, support for Ukraine).
The Romanian parliament has adopted a new National Security Strategy
The Romanian parliament has approved the draft of the new National Security Strategy for 2025-30 by an overwhelming majority (314 votes in favor, 43 against, three abstentions). The draft document was presented by Romanian President Nicușor Dan, who mentioned that the document was developed through a process of extensive consultation and resulted in a doctrine of “solidary independence” – caring for one’s own interests and identity while respecting international commitments.
The document points to the main threats posed by the erosion of the international order, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the growing number of conflicts on a global scale, as well as the risks associated with instability in Moldova, the South Caucasus, and the Western Balkans. Among the main opportunities for Bucharest, the Strategy mentions, among other things, the strategic partnership with the US, the country’s role in NATO and the EU, the renewal of the defense industry, and the potential of its location on the Black Sea. The Strategy recommends continuing to strengthen defense capabilities, deepening international cooperation, and maintaining support for Ukraine and Moldova.
Romanian defense minister resigns
Romanian Defense Minister Ionat Mosteanu resigned from office on November 28, announcing his decision on social media. The resignation was prompted by doubts about the accuracy of the information provided by Mosteanu regarding his education. The minister represented the liberal USR party, to which the current president belongs. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan immediately accepted his resignation.
Although the minister’s resignation has been widely commented on by the Romanian media and commentators, it will not significantly affect the pace of current armament programs. Bucharest is under time pressure to use funding from the European SAFE program (Romania’s application to the European Commission amounts to almost EUR 17 billion).
Drone training program in Lithuania
An innovative training program on the construction and operation of unmanned aerial vehicles is being implemented in Lithuania. The project is largely funded by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense and is organized by the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union in cooperation with the Ministry of Education and the educational organization “Lineša,” which conducts training for primary school (grades 3-8) and secondary school students. One of the key elements of the program is the creation of several drone training centers located in different regions of Lithuania.
The program was launched in September 2025, and its main goal is to train approximately 22,000 Lithuanian citizens, including 7,000 children, in the construction and operation of drones by 2028. The training covers theoretical knowledge of aviation, the use of flight simulators, as well as the design and manufacture of unmanned aerial vehicle components using 3D printers. The project is part of the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ strategy to expand the technological knowledge of future military service candidates and strengthen the skills and knowledge of the Lithuanian Riflemen’s Union.
Suspected sabotage on a railway line in Norway
In November, incidents related to the safety of railway passengers occurred in the Råde area of Norway. On the Østfoldbanen railway line, which is very important for international transport, incidents involving various objects being placed on the tracks occurred. Among them were a stone boulder, a heavy metal engine part, and a television set. In all these cases, passing trains collided with the objects lying on the tracks. No casualties were reported.
The Norwegian Counterintelligence Service PST signaled similar risks of incidents involving railways in its annual report “Nasjonal trusselvurdering 2025.” Although the perpetrators of the Norwegian incidents have not yet been found, following the events in Poland on November 16 and similar unexplained incidents in Sweden in 2024 on the Malmbanan railway line, it is difficult not to take seriously the scenario of operations carried out by the Russian secret services.
Reform of military intelligence and counterintelligence in Finland
In Finland, legislative work is underway on a partial reform of Military Intelligence. The proposed changes include the integration of the Border Guard into the military reconnaissance and counterintelligence support system, while maintaining its separate status, the expansion of intelligence and counterintelligence structures in the Armed Forces, broader access to civilian data, and improved information exchange. These proposals are based on the experience of the 2019 law, which reformed the intelligence and counterintelligence system. The current proposals will be consulted by several dozen different institutions until February 2026, and the reform is planned to come into force on July 1, 2026.
Changes in the functioning of the Finnish secret services have been ongoing for many years. The reform, which came into force in 2019, was developed on the basis of a political consensus. The most controversial issue at the time was granting military intelligence and counterintelligence broad access to data on citizens. Following the reforms, there are two main structures operating in Finland: SUPO (Finnish: Suojelupoliisi), which acts as civilian intelligence and counterintelligence, and the institutionally integrated military intelligence and counterintelligence service within the Finnish Armed Forces. Neither of these services – civilian or military – has investigative powers. These tasks are carried out for all special services by the Central Investigation Bureau of the Police (Keskusrikospoliisi – KRP). Finland has also expanded its oversight of the special services. The position of Intelligence Ombudsman with broad powers has been created, and tasks in this area have been entrusted to the Parliamentary Intelligence Oversight Committee.
Russia’s creation of armed unmanned maritime systems in response to NATO tactics
Russia has established a centralized center for the production of military unmanned boats for the Russian Navy, according to Nikolai Patiusev, chairman of the Maritime College. The decision is a response to Ukraine’s effective use of naval strike drones against the Black Sea Fleet and NATO’s growing interest in such systems in the Baltic Sea. This body of water is seen by the Russian authorities as an “ideal laboratory” for testing the tactics of unmanned naval assets by the alliance countries.
Moscow is trying to catch up in a domain where it has so far been surprised by its opponents’ initiative, which may initiate a new stage in the regional technology race.
Conclusions and changes after the Zapad-2025 maneuvers
The Russian General Staff is conducting analyses and implementations resulting from the new model of exercises with Belarus. The operational plans for the western direction officially include a nuclear scenario with a simulation of the use of the new Oriesznik medium-range missile system. This year’s Zapad was conducted on a limited scale, with approximately 30,000 soldiers compared to 200,000 in 2021. Russia deliberately ceded the media and organizational role to Minsk, focusing on testing the interoperability of command and communication systems. The reduction in mass troop movements indicates a transition to a “light footprint” logistics model on Belarusian territory.
Moscow is adapting the Zapad format to the realities of war and resource pressures, while strengthening the strategic component and flexibility of operations in the western direction.
Russia is expanding a giant CDAA antenna in the Cherniachovsk area
In the vicinity of Cherniachovsk in the Kaliningrad Oblast, construction is underway on a circular CDAA antenna with a diameter of 1,600 m, located about 25 km from the border with Poland. Analysis of satellite images from July 2025 shows that the work is at an advanced stage: six concentric antenna rings, radial roads, control stations, and prepared sites for monopole antennas have been built. This type of system enables broadband monitoring, location of emission sources, and interception of NATO communications. The investment is part of the intensification of Russian reconnaissance capabilities in the western direction.
The expansion of the CDAA in Kaliningrad strengthens Russia’s SIGINT architecture and increases information pressure on NATO countries in the region.
News from the Eastern Flank Institute (EFI):
- The Eastern Flank Institute took part in a special edition of the “SprawdzaMY” initiative, dedicated to the development of the Polish drone sector. The project of the Entrepreneurship Support Foundation brought together an interdisciplinary team of experts representing analytical centers (including the EFI), academic circles, the defense industry, the new technologies sector, and law firms. The result of this joint effort is a report entitled “Polish Drone Army”, which we encourage you to read.
- EFI expert Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj appeared on the podcast Kanał Telewizyjny (in Polish), where he commented on the prospects for the development of Poland’s security environment in the regional and global dimensions.
- EFI Council member Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki gave an interview (in Polish) to the money.pl portal, where he discussed, among other things, the developments in Ukraine and a potential peace plan.
