Eastern Flank Review, 15.04-21.04.2026

EFI review of the past week in Central and Eastern Europe.

We encourage you to read our review of the past week in Central and Eastern Europe:

Rheinmetall Expands Its Industrial Presence in Romania

The German defense contractor Rheinmetall has announced plans for a significant expansion of its production base in Romania. This initiative aims not only to maintain current operations but, above all, to launch new production lines and strengthen cooperation with local industry. The expansion is expected to create over 2,500 new jobs. The plans include the production of armored vehicles (including Lynx infantry fighting vehicles), air defense systems, medium-caliber ammunition, and equipment for the navy and air force. Company representatives point to the integration of over 100 Romanian companies into Rheinmetall’s supply chain.

Rheinmetall’s increased involvement in Romania coincides with the planned modernization of the Romanian land forces, including a program worth approximately €3 billion to purchase infantry fighting vehicles. The development of local production and maintenance capabilities is part of a broader trend toward strengthening the defense autonomy of countries in the region and shortening supply chains in the face of the ongoing threat in Eastern Europe. The German company has clearly stepped up its communications efforts in light of recent controversies regarding cost overruns on the infantry fighting vehicle contract and the defense minister’s publicly expressed dissatisfaction.

Bulgaria joins eight new projects under the EDF

The European Commission has decided to fund 57 joint defense projects under the European Defense Fund (EDF) with a total value of approximately €1.07 billion. Sofia will participate in a total of eight projects in the areas of cybersecurity (€52 million), the development of dual-use orbital systems (€57 million), and the construction of low-cost reconnaissance satellites (€65 million). Other initiatives include, among others, the use of quantum technologies for intelligence analysis, the development of maritime capabilities, air combat systems, as well as training simulators based on lasers and artificial intelligence. The projects also include the development of systems for detecting fast-moving targets in challenging conditions.

Bulgaria is becoming increasingly active within EU defense technology development programs, and local entities are eager to collaborate with European counterparts. Particular activity is evident in the area of technologies whose independent development could be time- and capital-intensive.

Czech Republic: The army plans to purchase approximately 3,000 drones by 2028.

Czech Defense Minister Jaromír Zůna announced that the armed forces will acquire approximately 3,000 unmanned aerial vehicles by 2028. Five public procurement contracts covering this purchase are currently underway, with the first deliveries expected in the coming years. The announcement was made during military communications exercises in Bechyně. According to the minister, the development of unmanned systems is part of a broader modernization of the army. Zůna noted that in the long term, the Ministry of Defense aims to increase the role of technology on the battlefield, including the partial replacement of soldiers with unmanned and automated solutions.

In the new cabinet, the Czech Ministry of Defense must balance the armed forces’ development plans with budget constraints resulting from the fulfillment of election promises regarding social policy. Plans to procure approximately 3,000 unmanned aerial vehicles—though they will not be without impact on the armed forces’ capabilities—are relatively modest given the nature of this type of military equipment and the rapidly growing potential of the Czech defense industry.

Work on establishing a civilian intelligence service in Sweden

In Sweden, intensive preparations are underway to establish a new civilian intelligence service, namely the Foreign Intelligence Service (Swedish: Myndigheten för utrikes underrättelser). Its establishment stems from a decision made in 2026 and the reform of the Swedish intelligence system, particularly to relieve the Military Intelligence and Counterintelligence Service (MUST). According to the adopted guidelines, the new agency is to focus on strengthening the capacity to gather intelligence outside the military sphere.

A process of coordination is currently underway regarding the formal procedures that will enable the new service to begin operations on January 1, 2027. It is scheduled to begin operations on January 1, 2027. The existing military intelligence service will remain responsible for intelligence, counterintelligence, and the protection of the armed forces, but will lose some of its current responsibilities in the non-military sphere. The reform is a direct response to the changing geopolitical situation, the growing activity of Russia and China, and the escalating military and hybrid threats on NATO’s eastern flank and in the Arctic region. The new service is to specialize in collecting and analyzing intelligence for the state’s political and economic needs, with particular emphasis on hybrid threats, espionage, and influence operations.

A Cavalry Unit as an Experiment in the Estonian Defense League

The Estonian Defense League (Est. Kaitseliit) is an integral part of the Estonian Armed Forces and carries out territorial defense tasks. Within this formation, there is a small, volunteer initiative utilizing horses (a mounted unit, Est. ratsaüksus). Its activities align with the Estonian concept of “total defense,” particularly in hard-to-reach forested and marshy areas. The unit consists of a dozen or so volunteers, including both former soldiers and civilians.

This volunteer formation was established on the initiative of Kaitseliit members as one of several unconventional ideas to improve the quality of service. The unit is not a full-scale combat formation; however, during its operations, the effectiveness of its activities in conducting shallow reconnaissance, courier communications, and patrolling areas with limited accessibility for other means of transport will be tested. The project has an experimental and research dimension and aims to assess whether equestrian mobility can serve as a niche complement to the territorial defense system. In a broader context, this aligns with Estonia’s defense strategy, which is based on leveraging local resources and citizens’ skills to build the resilience of society as a whole. It is worth noting that the Kaitseliit already includes, among others, a motorized unit in the Tartu region. Its specialty is performing courier functions during a conflict using soldiers’ private vehicles.

“CENTER 795” – a new invisible army

Investigations by Der Spiegel and The Insider described Military Unit No. 75127 (“Center 795”) as a sabotage-terrorist structure of approximately 500 personnel directly subordinate to the Kremlin, formed following a series of failures by older units; it comprises personnel from the FSB’s Alpha Group, the GZ/GRU, the Belarusian KGB, and arms manufacturers such as Kalashnikov, and the unit itself is located in Patriot Park under corporate cover.

Comment: “Center 795” represents a qualitative leap—not just another special unit, but an inter-agency special operations body disguised as a “corporate project,” which blurs the line between the state and the military-intelligence complex and provides the Kremlin with a tool for protracted warfare, combining kinetic, cyber, and influence operations into a single planning cycle.

Kaliningrad, Decree 440, and New Tasks for the Union State’s Security Services

On April 15, the 25th joint meeting of the Russian SWR and the Belarusian KGB (KGD) was held in Kaliningrad, chaired by Naryshkin and Tiertel, officially dedicated to the Union State’s intelligence priorities in the western direction; in the background is Belarusian Presidential Decree No. 440, which shifted the intelligence service’s operational philosophy from “protecting the interests of the individual, society, and the state” to protecting “national interests,” introduced the concept of “preemptive measures” against foreign services, and strengthened the position of the Border Committee and its OSAM—a structure for special operations along NATO borders.

The choice of Kaliningrad, the “Western” focus of the discussions, and the newly expanded powers of the Belarusian services point to real coordination of operations against Poland and the Baltic states—the Belarusian-Polish and Baltic borders are becoming a field of joint operations for the SWR, the KGB, and OSAM, ranging from migration pressure to sabotage, which in practice raises the level of hybrid risk across NATO’s entire eastern flank.

News from the Eastern Flank Institute (IWF):

  • As part of the first publication in the “IWF Perspective” series, we present a study titled “A Springboard to Competitiveness: A Concept for an Instrument to Support the Polish Defense Industry.” We propose a practical elaboration of one of the most important ideas contained in the report “How to Go from Being an Arms Importer to an Arms Exporter?” published in 2025, namely the creation of a support instrument for a strategically important branch of our industry, one that determines our security and potentially serves as one of the engines of our economy. What might the Defense Industry Support Fund look like? We encourage you to read the full text of the study: https://wschodniaflanka.pl/fundusz-wsparcia-przemyslu-obronnego-perspektywa-iwf/.
  • The Eastern Flank Institute was pleased to serve as a strategic partner of the Resilience Conference Warsaw 2026, organized on April 15, 2026, by Resilience Media. The event brought together investors, founders, experts, policymakers, and military representatives involved in the development and transformation of defense systems. As part of the conference, we co-moderated the panel “The Bigger Picture of War and Technology,” dedicated to the relationship between ongoing conflicts and the long-term development of defense technologies. Participants in the discussion included: Gen. Rajmund Andrzejczak (OTB Ventures), Patrick Schneider-Sikorsky (NATO Innovation Fund), and Jacek Siewiera (Atlantic Council).