We encourage you to read our review of the past week in Central and Eastern Europe:
Romania and Ukraine Sign an Agreement on Joint Drone Production
During the Ukrainian President’s visit to Bucharest on March 12, a number of bilateral agreements were signed, including one providing for the joint production of weapons and unmanned aerial systems. The jointly signed document is a letter of intent, but it is backed by a joint project to be funded under the EU’s SAFE program, worth approximately €200 million. Under the project, Ukraine is to provide the necessary technology and components, while Romania will provide the site and infrastructure required to scale up production.
The Romanian government is striving to present itself as relatively open to cooperation with Kyiv in a regional context and ready to take over some tasks from other partners, both in the sphere of military aid deliveries and the development of joint industrial projects. Currently, there is a lack of detailed information regarding the location or products involved in the joint project, which is co-financed through SAFE.
The Romanian government is supporting the U.S. operation against Iran
On March 11, following a meeting of the Supreme Council of National Defense, Romania approved the U.S. request to use the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base to strengthen the logistical support for the military operation against Iran. The U.S. side will immediately deploy approximately 400–500 troops and an undisclosed package of equipment to the aforementioned base. Among other things, three additional Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft have arrived at the airfield. Additional equipment will also be deployed at the Câmpia Turzii and Deveselu bases.
The U.S. government’s request to use the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base demonstrates the facility’s enduring strategic importance for potential U.S. operations in the Middle East, and potentially also for operations on NATO’s eastern flank. Located near the Black Sea, the base is still being expanded and, despite recent reductions in the U.S. contingent in Romania, remains one of Bucharest’s key assets in its relations with the U.S.
Slovak President on the Need for Constitutional Amendments
Slovak President Manuel Pellegrini has initiated a discussion on the need for amendments to the Slovak constitution, justifying it with the need to introduce provisions for a new state of emergency that would allow the use of armed forces to counter crises beyond regular armed conflict. Pellegrini discussed the matter with the Chief of the Slovak General Staff, Daniel Zmeko, and Defense Minister Robert Kalinak, who supported the presidential initiative. Potential threats identified included the possibility of massive attacks on critical infrastructure. The next stage of the debate will involve consultations with expert communities.
President Pellegrini’s statement reflects a growing awareness of threats in the countries on NATO’s eastern flank that are not related to conventional armed conflict, but rather to the possibility of coordinated attacks exploiting national vulnerabilities—for example, in the energy sector or the functioning of border regions. Countering such threats using the armed forces (including the effective deployment of selected units for combat operations) requires the establishment of appropriate legal frameworks, including amendments to constitutional provisions. Given the sensitivity of the issue of potential amendments to the constitution, particularly regarding states of emergency, Pellegrini’s proposal will certainly spark lively discussions among experts.
GRU and VDV soldiers in security teams for the “shadow fleet” tankers
Tankers belonging to the so-called “shadow fleet,” which has been monitored for months in the context of oil transport in the Baltic Sea, are being reinforced with special, dedicated security teams. Crew lists often include individuals listed as technical personnel, yet without documented qualifications in this field. This phenomenon has caught the attention of analysts and experts, leading to the disclosure of a range of personal data on veterans of the Russian military intelligence agency GRU, paratroopers from the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) (Russian: Воздушно-десантные войска), and other individuals associated with Russian military special services.
Securing oil transport via Baltic routes is becoming crucial for Russia due to the need to protect vital sources of revenue. The crews include individuals with military experience, a history of service in special forces, and in some cases, participation in operations of the Wagner Group, e.g., in Syria. This is intended to enhance the security of these transports. The intelligence services of the Baltic states assess that this mechanism is designed to hinder the seizure and control of ships in the so-called “shadow fleet,” thereby increasing the risk of conducting such operations.
Cold Response 2026 Exercises in Finland, Norway, and Sweden
The NATO Cold Response 2026 military exercises are currently underway. They are being conducted in northern Finland, Sweden, and Norway, which is the organizer of this year’s exercise. The exercises serve as a practical test of the NATO Forward Land Forces (FLF) stationed in Finland and Sweden, with Sweden acting as the framework nation. Approximately 25,000 troops from 14 countries are participating in the exercises.
This year’s exercises focus on conducting operations in Arctic conditions, improving interoperability between forces, and testing the ability to rapidly deploy and integrate troops in the northern region. The exercises are part of the broader NATO Arctic Sentry initiative, which aims to strengthen deterrence and increase the Alliance’s presence. In Finland alone, activities are taking place in the Rovajärvi training area in Lapland, where over 7,500 soldiers are training, including 3,500 Finns, of whom approximately 2,000 are reservists. The largest foreign contingent in Finland comes from Sweden, which has deployed a division headquarters and approximately 2,000 soldiers. In Norway, exercises are conducted in the north near Tromsø and Alta along the Finnish-Swedish border, while in Sweden they take place in the Kiruna and Boden areas along the Finnish border.
Russian naval exercises and rearmament in the northwest
In the Baltic Sea, the small Project 22800 missile ship “Buria” “Karakurt,” conducted state trials, including firing from the “Pancyr-M” naval system at a target missile launched from the corvette “Boikij,” effectively destroying the target with two missiles; simultaneously, in the Barents Sea, the cruiser “Marshal Ustinov” conducted AK-130 artillery firing at coastal targets and practiced defense against maritime drones, while the “Kalashnikov” concern delivered to the military the first batch of 2026 of shortened AK-12K rifles for assault and reconnaissance units.
This set of activities indicates a parallel strengthening of Russia’s strike capabilities and close-in defense—the Baltic Sea is gaining a new, relatively inexpensive platform for precision weapons in the form of the “Karakurt” with an organic short-range air defense system, the Northern Fleet is intensifying training in countering maritime drones and coastal targets, and the WDW troops are receiving more ergonomic, “compact” AK-12K rifles, optimized for urban combat and sabotage-reconnaissance operations—together, this paints a picture of an army learning from Ukraine and gradually improving its capabilities to conduct high-intensity operations in the northwestern direction.
Sabotage of railway infrastructure in Latvia in August 2025 – new findings
In early March, the Latvian Security Service (VDD) filed a motion to initiate criminal proceedings against two individuals suspected of setting fire to elements of the railway infrastructure in Latvia. The incident took place in August 2025. The investigation determined that the acts of sabotage targeted a locomotive and relay components along the railway line. The perpetrators were apprehended in early September of last year.
The VDD’s investigation revealed further details and circumstances surrounding the damage. It is known, among other things, that, as in many other European countries, the perpetrators recorded the moment of the arson and sent the video footage to their clients as proof of the task’s completion. Both suspects have been placed in pretrial detention.
News from the Eastern Flank Institute (IWF):
- “The Brains of War. The Russian Military-Industrial Complex and Real Defense Potential” is a new analysis published by IWF expert Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj. The text shows how the Russian military-industrial complex really works and what this means for the Kremlin’s ability to wage a long war against the West. Polish version of the analysis is available at the link.
- On March 12, 2026, the Security and Defense Council under the President of the Republic of Poland was established. Dr. Sławomir Cenckiewicz, Head of the National Security Bureau, was appointed Chairman of the Council. We are pleased to announce that representatives of the Eastern Flank Institute have been appointed to the Council: Michał Dworczyk, Chairman of the IWF Program Council (as Vice-Chairman), and one of our experts, Col. (ret.) Łukasz Paczesny.
